At its financial analysts briefing on October 6, Red Hat (RHAT) reconfirmed that it still plans to
- gain half of server operating software and middleware market share during the 2010-2019 decade
- stay focused on the lower layers of the stack, as opposed to developing or acquiring applications and database products
CEO James Whitehurst explained the uberthinking and then to explain how Red Hat would reach those goals, Product and Technology VP Paul Cormier took attendees through a 30-year history of and 10-year look-ahead into how information technology (IT) systems/software suppliers try to lock-in IT users. For example, he explained:
- the total systems-supplier lock in of the 1980s, broken by Intel (INTL);
- the Microsoft (MSFT)/Intel Windows lock-in of the 90s, broken by Red Hat (according to Red Hat of course);
- the IBM/Oracle (ORCL) SOA lock-in of the current decade, broken by JBoss.
I would contend that an SOA lock-in never really occurred (or has not yet occurred and may never occur). But I like the symmetry. Coming next, according to Cormier is the emerging virtualization lock in led by VMware (VMW). See What Virtualization Means for Enterprise Software Tomorrow.
Cormier made an interesting observation after explaining how Red Hat Enterprise Linux (RHEL) saved the world from Wintel and JBoss saved the world from IBM WebSphere and Oracle/BEA WebLogic. His question: why were users so willing to turn around via virtualization and go back to the total single-supplier stack lock-in of the 80s?
- His answer: It’s easier for independent software vendors (ISVs) to deal with an integrated stack. That has some merit but shows his Digital Equipment Corp. heritage.
- My answer: Everyone, including IT management and staff as well as ISVs, want an integrated stack. Except they don’t think of it that way; that is, they don’t think of it technologically. What they want is ease of use and one throat to choke.
Of course, despite all its good-marketing hoopla about breaking up lock-ins, Red Hat wants to tie up IT users also. In fact it will have to meet those 50% market share goals. It looks like Red Hat will offer a bungee cord rather than handcuffs but it’s still lock-in.
And that’s OK, because as I say, that’s what the market wants. It's human nature not technology. I bought a Chevy recently. I did not want to buy an engine from Taizhou Jili and a transmission from Dyna and a power train from Getrag and try to put them together myself using my old beat-up Chevy as the body (and it wasn't even a clunker).
Whether you like his answer or mine, the symetrical timeline is already marching on. Next Cormier sees other suppliers, especially Microsoft (who he notes he also actively partners with) trying to lock in users in the cloud. The technology to accomplish this is found in messaging and grid computer science and Red Hat has been actively working at that layer for two or more years already.
(As a sidelight, Red Hat didn’t take on Microsoft the way Microsoft took on its competitors--including Linux suppliers--at its Financial Analyst day in July 2009. As I noted in the Red Hat middleware post linked to above, I miss Marc Fleury. Has Red Hat decided to leave it to its lawyers to play hardball?)
-- Dennis Byron
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